Project Cedar · Value Creation Portal | Valitas Capital Partners

01

Executive summary

Trailing-twelve-month performance across the a 24-location dental support organization (DSO) operating across the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest, with the value-creation opportunity quantified and bridged to enterprise value.

TTM Revenue

$96.5M

24 locations · 3 regions

TTM EBITDA

$15.8M

16.4% margin (location-level)

EBITDA upside identified

+$8.1M

→ $23.9M (24.7% margin)

Enterprise value created

$112.3M

9.5x → 11.0x · clears $100M target

02

The value-creation thesis

Four operational levers move under-performing locations to the portfolio's current top quartile — no heroics, just closing the gap to what the best sites already do. Each lever is sized from the data with explicit flow-through to EBITDA.

EBITDA bridge — today to target

Location-level EBITDA, TTM. Hover a bar for the increment.

Provider & chair utilization+$4.0M

71% median → 76% target · 50% of upside

18 locations run below the 76% top-quartile utilization. Filling existing chair time converts idle fixed capacity into high-contribution revenue.

Patient retention & recall+$1.5M

49% median recall → 54% target · 19% of upside

Re-activating lapsed hygiene/recall patients restores the recurring revenue base — the single biggest driver of a dental practice’s lifetime value.

Payer mix & fee schedule+$1.8M

shift Medicaid >22% + 2% fee correction · 22% of upside

Rebalancing high-Medicaid sites toward commercial/PPO and a disciplined fee-schedule update lifts revenue per visit with little added cost.

Labor productivity+$737K

49% median labor → 47% benchmark · 9% of upside

Above-median sites carry excess labor cost per dollar of revenue; staffing-model and scheduling discipline moves them toward the top-quartile benchmark.

03

Where the value hides

The portfolio average masks wide dispersion. These are the diagnostics that point each lever at the right locations.

Location EBITDA margin — full portfolio

Sorted low → high. Red = bottom quartile (priority), green = top quartile (benchmark).

What drives margin? Utilization vs. EBITDA margin

Each dot is a location. Regression slope , R² — utilization is the strongest single driver.

Revenue & EBITDA — 24-month trend

Monthly, all locations combined. Steady revenue; EBITDA is the lever.

Payer mix (revenue-weighted)

Medicaid concentration at several sites is a margin drag — and a pricing opportunity.

04

Location scorecard

Five lowest-margin locations (priority) and five benchmark locations. The full 24-location model and all 576 location-months sit behind the portal.

Location	Region	Revenue (TTM)	EBITDA margin	Utilization	Recall	Medicaid %	Status
Maplewood Dental Group	Midwest	$2.8M	7.9%	63%	40%	36%	▲ Priority
Westfield Dental Care	Midwest	$3.3M	9.7%	62%	39%	37%	▲ Priority
Stonebridge Dental	Southeast	$3.1M	10.3%	64%	41%	43%	▲ Priority
Northgate Dental	Northeast	$3.2M	10.6%	64%	42%	29%	▲ Priority
Cedar Park Dental	Southeast	$3.8M	11.1%	62%	38%	45%	▲ Priority
Meadowbrook Smiles	Northeast	$5.3M	23.5%	80%	58%	8%	Benchmark
Brookfield Family Dental	Midwest	$5.9M	21.8%	76%	54%	20%	Benchmark
Highland Park Dental	Northeast	$4.3M	20.2%	77%	56%	13%	Benchmark
Glenwood Smiles	Midwest	$3.5M	20.1%	82%	60%	12%	Benchmark
Rockport Dental Care	Midwest	$5.6M	20.1%	73%	51%	23%	Benchmark

05

Ask the AI analyst

The portal ships with a live analyst grounded in this engagement's findings. Ask it anything about the data, the levers, or the recommendations — it answers in seconds, 24/7.

✦

Project Cedar — Value Creation Analyst

Grounded in the live model · powered by Gemini

✦

Hello — I'm the analyst for Project Cedar. I've read the full TTM model across a 24-location dental support organization (DSO) operating across the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest. Ask me about the $8.1M of EBITDA upside, which locations to prioritise, or what to do first.

Answers are generated live from the engagement model. Demo data is synthetic.

06

How the analysis was built

A repeatable analytical pipeline — the same approach scales to any portfolio company's fragmented data.

Unify

Python (pandas) / SQL

Join the fragmented PMS and accounting exports on location + month into one tidy fact table.

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Segment

Clustering / quartiles

Rank and segment locations into performance quartiles to expose dispersion and outliers.

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Explain

Regression analysis

Regress EBITDA margin on utilization, payer mix and labor productivity to isolate the real drivers (util R²=0.58).

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Quantify

Opportunity model

Size each lever by moving laggards to the current top quartile, with explicit flow-through to EBITDA.

07

In a live engagement

This portal runs the transform in-process so it is clickable today. In a live engagement the same logic runs on a governed stack and refreshes as new data lands:

Land

Cloud Storage / SFTP

PMS, GL and payroll exports drop on a schedule — no manual pulls.

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Model

BigQuery + dbt

Version-controlled, tested SQL joins the sources and builds the TTM location model.

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Analyze

Python (scikit-learn / statsmodels)

Segmentation, regression and the opportunity model — re-run as data updates.

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Deliver

This portal + Looker Studio

One link: dashboard, source deliverables, and an AI analyst — replacing the static deck.

Every figure traces back to a row in the two source files. Synthetic data throughout.

08

Source data

The two fragmented exports the model joins — shown untouched. Every number on this page traces back to these rows.

Practice-management / scheduling export ops_pms_export.csv 576 rows

View Download CSV

month	location_id	location	region	patient_visits	new_patients	provider_hours_available	provider_hours_booked	medicaid_share	hygiene_recall_rate
2024-07	L01	Riverside Dental	Northeast	844	86	690.5	466.5	0.2108	0.4578
2024-07	L02	Oakmont Family Dental	Southeast	681	62	624.6	477.9	0.2509	0.5567
2024-07	L03	Lakeshore Dental Care	Midwest	966	115	832.7	617.7	0.2399	0.5249
2024-07	L04	Summit Smiles	Northeast	1155	119	947.1	587.1	0.2934	0.3693
2024-07	L05	Cedar Park Dental	Southeast	1036	114	903.2	555.1	0.4757	0.4098
2024-07	L06	Maplewood Dental Group	Midwest	793	66	621.7	379.9	0.3566	0.3828
2024-07	L07	Harborview Dental	Northeast	1460	136	1234.8	877.9	0.2139	0.4889
2024-07	L08	Stonebridge Dental	Southeast	889	83	731.6	474.3	0.4199	0.3886

Accounting / payroll export finance_gl_export.csv 576 rows

View Download CSV

month	location_id	revenue	labor_cost	supply_cost	occupancy_cost	other_opex
2024-07	L01	232022.04	112832.63	29324.46	34315.49	27877.12
2024-07	L02	184062.93	86749.29	22251.42	34954.92	23152.65
2024-07	L03	262083.34	127989.5	31230.08	37865.83	29390.14
2024-07	L04	306027.43	155536.76	38404.58	39736.44	35961.4
2024-07	L05	251664.4	129471.71	32502.71	38693.44	31215.76
2024-07	L06	204189.15	106388.47	25650.46	33470.96	26085.55
2024-07	L07	400758.64	197758.13	46566.94	45274.36	41569.21
2024-07	L08	222141.41	111211.08	26860.16	35613.37	27054.7